Day-to-Day Killings in the nation Drop Over a Third Under President Sheinbaum, As per Government Data

The mean figure of everyday killings per month in the country has fallen by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per fresh official figures. But, security analysts have warned that murder figures may not indicate improved national stability.

Significant Decline in Daily Figures

Officials reported an average of close to 55 killings a day in the month of November as opposed to nearly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidential office in the previous September. This data was provided by the director of the country’s national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that we have seen during these months is remarkably significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, explaining that the previous month the lowest number of homicides were documented for any single November in the past decade.

Historical Context and Official Strategy

Fierce organized crime infighting, coupled with the administration's heavily militarised operations to take on the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in the past few years. The rate peaked at a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics office.

That gave Mexico a murder figure more than 4x higher than that of the United States. From that point, murders have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her national security plan for an seemingly steeper decline in homicides this year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader stated: “We have a strategy, we have tracking of the plan, and we have specific tracking town by town in certain cases. The strategy works. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The key components of the President's security strategy encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Greater coordination between government departments.

Analyst Warnings and Data Limitations

However, public safety analysts warned that using homicide data to draw a conclusion of improved security was misleading. This is especially true given the uptick in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“It would be positive news if this was a drop, but I think we must not just look at the murder data and say: ‘Well then, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican organised crime. “I would be guardedly positive.”

Per the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, killings overall declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the identical timeframe last year. But, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not valid for estimating the context of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the inclination to properly identify and classify remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on monthly averages of everyday homicides was similarly an issue because it might obscure days when there were notably high levels of murders.

“Employing the per-day average makes surges of violence unseen,” he said.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

An area where the government can point to the effectiveness of its security strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and November 2025 for serious offenses, according to official figures. Over 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms profitable,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Anger

However despite these measures, Mexico is still plagued by severe bloodshed, with several states in the grip of cartel-fueled bloodshed. In the previous month there was a notable assassination of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors assassinated in the last 12 months.

Weeks later, thousands of young people protested in Mexico City and across the nation to express their outrage at graft and narco-violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a manner to create a narrative of improvement. Politically it’s extremely successful, from a social perspective it’s very questionable,” the analyst said.