Keir Starmer's Allies Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Mayor's Commons Return

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.

Major Hurdles in the Selection Process

Multiple members on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several insiders also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.