Moving from Grudging Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A unexpected operation against the capital city in the dead of night, ending with the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its intention to govern indefinitely.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a dangerous precedent. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be engaged in combat for four years.”

Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how audacious the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and the two leaders have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”