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Just 48 hours prior to the NYC mayoral election, Michael Lange issued a bold forecast – going beyond the winner citywide, but block by block. Lange, a political analyst who grew up in the city, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and emerged as a kind of local celebrity recently for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He released his extremely precise prediction map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate would win although missing Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He highlighted, for instance, the split between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to another area to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that Mamdani would win by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on affluent parts of Manhattan. In those areas, “the Free Press and financial newspapers outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and most voters leaned toward Cuomo, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Trends and Unexpected Results

How was your election night?

It was necessary since they were dropping around 200,000 votes into the tally every few minutes! I was actually a little nervous initially: Mamdani led the early vote by 12 points, but came large groups of ballots that came in after that and his lead dropped from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world where election day went kind of poorly for Mamdani, where the opponent would have essentially doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. However Mamdani added 500,000 supporters to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he won. He campaigned and massively expanded his base from the primary.

Expanding Support

Where did Mamdani get those extra votes from?

He assembled the alliance that progressives long aimed for: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the earlier election. Additionally he boosted his base of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He built the alliance that the left always wanted to build: multiracial, youthful, renters and residents squeezed by affordability

There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It is a genuine phenomenon, limited to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Voters in ethnic enclaves that supported the former president last year went for Zohran now. But it’s not that he was gaining white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Effects

One of the big stories of the night was the record turnout. Who did that help?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I thought we might go over two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – that is a huge number of participants. Existed a decent opposition group, energized, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that sufficed to win.

You predicted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Right now you would say he’s favored to surpass half. He has 50.4% but remain around 200,000 votes uncounted at that time. Thus it’s not certain, but I believe probable, and I wish he does so afterwards no one can say the Republican was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His vote completely collapsed.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Not even one neighborhood in Staten Island, similar to an highly conservative neighborhood. That truly surprised me. The independent kept Caucasian districts, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained many conservatives on the island who had a strong turnout. I believe there was significant tactical voting by the Republicans. They were doing it before Trump endorsed for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide unless the winning alliance failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your much mentioned left-wing base – was support for the candidate overwhelming in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view there was a little dilution of the progressive zone in some areas like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the Greek landlords and residents supported the independent. So there existed a little resistance. But no, largely the leftist base is another huge reason why Zohran prevailed – he scored between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the election we reported on whether Mamdani was gaining ground with the community. Any indication that he did?

There are areas with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. However in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance was influential there. Similarly in the moderate communities like Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned Cuomo. And also, you have newcomers from the former Soviet Union in the borough, who were pretty staunchly supportive. Therefore I don’t know if there were major surprises here, but Mamdani did hold left-leaning areas and even parts of the another locale with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city represents in politics? Will the progressive base serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest political leaders from progressives come from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be additional examples – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

However I think that each urban center in the US could develop similar progressive hubs. Cities are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – because youth reside there, people rent and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the inequalities we face.